Good News! Monsoon Arrives Early, Promises Abundant Rainfall for India

New Delhi. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced today that the Southwest Monsoon has made an early onset over parts of the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea, marking the earliest arrival in seven years. This development signals the start of India’s chief rainy season, which is critical for the nation’s agriculture and water resources.

The IMD reported that the monsoon advanced into the South Bay of Bengal, South Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands, and parts of the North Andaman Sea on May 13, six days ahead of the normal onset date of May 19 for the South Andaman Sea. “Conditions are favorable for further advance of the Southwest Monsoon over some parts of the South Arabian Sea, the Maldives and Comorin areas, and the entire Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the next three to four days,” the IMD stated in a press release.

This year’s early onset is attributed to several atmospheric and oceanic factors. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, highlighted the role of higher-than-normal minimum temperatures in North India, strengthening westerly winds at lower atmospheric levels, and easterly winds at higher levels. “The early pre-monsoon rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms over south peninsular India for about 40 days and prevailing higher-than-normal pressure over the northwest Pacific Ocean all indicate an early monsoon onset,” Mohapatra told The Indian Express. He added that both Indian and global weather models suggest heightened rainfall activity over Kerala before the normal onset date of June 1.

Forecast of above-normal rainfall

The IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, projecting 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) of 880 mm. This optimistic outlook is supported by favorable conditions, including neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions and the expected development of La Niña later in the season, which typically enhances rainfall over India.

The early monsoon onset has already brought widespread moderate to heavy rainfall to the Nicobar Islands over the past two days, fulfilling key criteria for the IMD’s declaration. The monsoon is expected to reach Kerala around May 27, five days earlier than the typical June 1 onset, potentially benefiting farmers preparing for the kharif crop season.

The Southwest Monsoon, which spans June to September, delivers over 70% of India’s annual rainfall, making it a lifeline for agriculture, water reservoirs, and hydropower generation. The monsoon typically progresses from the Andaman Sea to mainland India, covering the entire country by mid-July. This year’s early start and above-normal rainfall forecast offer hope for robust agricultural output and relief from recent heatwave conditions in parts of the country.

As India braces for the rainy season, the IMD continues to monitor atmospheric conditions, with further updates expected in the coming weeks. The early onset underscores the dynamic nature of the monsoon and the importance of advanced forecasting for planning in climate-sensitive sectors.