Sensex or Storm? Trump Tariffs and GDP Data to Shake D-Street Next Week

Dalal Street is heading into a heavy week. Global tariff developments in the United States and India’s fresh GDP numbers can decide the next move. Add the February F&O expiry and you get a mix that often creates sharp swings.

Markets already showed how fast they can turn. After falling over one percent in the previous session, Sensex bounced back 317 points to close at 82,814.71. Nifty also climbed 117 points, ending at 25,571.25. That rebound was strong, but confidence still looks cautious.

Trump Tariffs in Focus

Investors are watching tariff-related moves from the US very closely. Any legal shift or policy change linked to trade can affect global flows. And when global flows shift, emerging markets like India feel it almost instantly.

If tariffs tighten, export-driven sectors may react. If tensions ease, risk appetite could return quickly. It’s that sensitive right now.

Markets dislike uncertainty. And global trade news brings plenty of it.

Nifty Levels to Track Now

From a technical view, 25,800 is seen as immediate resistance for Nifty. Above that, 26,000 and 26,200 are the next hurdles. On the downside, 25,300 and 25,100 act as supports. A break below 25,000 may increase selling pressure faster than expected.

Traders are watching these numbers almost daily. Small moves around these zones can create bigger reactions.

GDP Data Could Shift Sentiment

On the domestic side, all eyes are on India’s quarterly GDP estimates under the new series. The data will be released on February 27 by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation. Growth numbers often change short-term market direction.

Stronger GDP can boost banking, infra and capital goods stocks. Weak numbers may trigger caution. It’s simple, growth matters.

Along with GDP, investors will track budget numbers, forex reserves, and year-on-year infrastructure output. These indicators together give a picture of how stable the economy really is.

F&O Expiry May Add More Swings

February 24 marks the monthly derivatives expiry. This period usually brings higher volatility. Traders adjust positions. Some book profits. Others hedge aggressively.

When expiry and major data events come together, price movement can feel exaggerated. Not always logical. Just fast.

Retail investors sometimes get confused in such weeks. Staying patient becomes important.

Foreign Investors Showing Interest Again

There is one positive sign. Foreign portfolio investors have turned net buyers in nine out of the last sixteen sessions till February 20. Data from NSDL shows FPI investments through exchanges stood at over Rs 14,000 crore during this period. Including primary market flows, total February investment crossed Rs 16,900 crore so far.

This suggests foreign confidence is not fully gone. It is improving slowly.

Next week, Dalal Street will juggle global trade worries, domestic growth data, and expiry pressures at the same time. Volatility seems likely. But within that noise, stock-specific action may continue quietly.

For investors, it may not be about chasing headlines. It may simply be about watching levels, reading data calmly, and avoiding panic trades. Markets test patience more than anything else.